中文 ENGLISH

ASIACHEM: Influences of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia on Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry

2020-02-29

Main views of this article

 

1. Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) has slowed down construction schedules of HRS. However, from late Feb, except Hubei Province, China enterprises resumption accelerates; and it is estimated that, in Q2, construction schedule of HRS will make up losses at the beginning of the year

2. Influenced by restrictions of logistics in each place, hydrogen transportation will be blocked for a short time. However, from Mar, except Hubei, transportation and logistics of hydrogen are expected to be recovered

3. Postponement of school-terms of universities will influence technology R&D schedules of hydrogen energy and fuel cell, marketization of related independent intellectual technology will be postponed

4. Whole automobile industry sales will decrease in 2020, cash flow of traditional entire vehicle factories will be weak, and which will influence investments of FCV industry

5. Influenced by enterprises resumption and supply chain, orders of Q1 of vehicle-used fuel cell industrial chain will not be delivered on time. However, except Hubei, all will be back to normal in Q2

6. Wuhan is one of main development areas of hydrogen energy and fuel cell of China. Hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry in Wuhan is particularly influenced by NCP, and development conditions in H1 2020 are full of uncertainty.

 

 

1. China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Developments

 

Information shows that, as early as the 10th FYP, MOST started implementation of EV major science and technology special projects, confirmed R&D distributions of 3 verticals and 3 horizontals (3 verticals: BEV, PHEV, FCV; 3 horizontals: Battery, electric motor, electric control). As one of 3 verticals, FCV technology was key arranged on R&D, and continues science and technology researching during the 11th FYP, 12th FYP and 13th FYP, R&D was arranged on FCV used stacks, bipolar plates, MEA, air compressors and hydrogen storage cylinders etc.

 

With organizations and implementations of four 5-year national science and technology planning, China hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies make series of breakthroughs on key technologies, cultivate a batch of enterprises engaging in R&D and production of fuel cell and key parts, and form R&D systems composed of university research institutes, covering hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen safety & fuel cell technologies, and large-scale demonstration operation is carried out in the fields of distributed energies, mobile communication base stations and the urban passenger transports and logistics etc. commercial-used vehicles.

 

2. Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP)

 

Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) means pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus. It was found in Wuhan at the end of 2019 due to viral pneumonia cases. Feb 11, 2020, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of World Health Organization (WHO), named this disease caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19 in Geneva, Switzerland.

 

Break out of NCP makes China extend Spring Festival vacation to Feb 3., while each city releases policies one after another, extending the resumption time, e.g., Hubei Province, where disease is severe, extended time to Feb 21. Besides, several enterprises choose to let employees work from home, too.

 

Although except Hubei, number of confirmed, suspected, severe and death cases of NCP in China is gradually decreasing, undeniable, this epidemic will have different impacts on hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry of China in 2020.

 

3. Influences of NCP on Hydrogen Energy Developments of China

 

ASIACHEM <China Hydrogen Energy Industrial Chain> information shows that, for a long time, hydrogen is mainly used as chemical raw material, widely applied to oil refining and methanol – synthetic ammonia etc., hydrogen production technology and equipment developments are matured. By hydrogen production process consumed primary energy, hydrogen production mainly includes the fossil energies to hydrogen, water electrolysis to hydrogen and industrial byproduct hydrogen etc. Currently, China hydrogen source mainly is coal to hydrogen.

 

FCV is most acknowledged downstream application of hydrogen energy in China in recent years, which infrastructure is HRS. Currently, China HRS mainly are outsourced HRS, using the tube trailers to transport industrial hydrogen after treatment of purification and compression to HRS, and fill in the cars.

 

ASIACHEM believes that, break out of NCP will have a short impact on production and transportation of hydrogen energy. In terms of production, hydrogen production factories will be stopped, which may lead current HRS ‘out-of-hydrogen’; besides, production of HRS and station-used devices will be suspended. In terms of transportation, to better prevent and control the epidemic and minimize the staff turnover, many cities take traffic control measures, which blocked China transportation of hydrogen and expanded delivery time of HRS used devices. However, with the relief of epidemic in other places expect Hubei, China hydrogen production and transportation will gradually resume.

 

4. Influences of NCP on Fuel Cell Developments of China

 

4.1 R&D

 

Currently, around R&D of core technologies of hydrogen energy and fuel cells, ASIACHEM <China Fuel Cell Industrial Chain Annual Report> research indicates that, China mainly as 3 technical routes

 

I. Set-up joint venture company with abroad enterprises, localize abroad hydrogen fuel cell technologies;

 

II. Introduce abroad technologies and licensed production, gradually master the core technologies;

 

III. Industry-academia-research combination, independent develop hydrogen fuel cell core technologies, matching application and industrial operation.

 

In terms of industry-academia-research, ASIACHEM research indicates that, currently, China universities hatched enterprises include SinoHytec (Tsinghua University, fuel cell), Wuhan WUT HyPower (Wuhan University of Technology, MEA), Wuhan Himalaya Optoelectronics (Tsinghua University, catalyst), Shanghai Zhizhen New Energy Equipment (Shanghai Jiao Tong University, bipolar plate), Shanghai H-Rise New Energy Technology (Shanghai Jiao Tong University, fuel cell), Anhui Mingtian Hydrogen Energy (DICP CAS and Tongji University, fuel cell), Shanghai Sunwise New Energy System (Tongji University, HRS and vehicle-loaded hydrogen supply system), Shanghai Jiping New Energy (Tongji University, catalyst and GDL) etc.

 

Jan 2020, General Office of the State Council announced that, school terms of all colleges, universities, primary and secondary schools and kindergartens will be postponed, and the specific time will be notified by department of education.

 

Information shows that, currently, universities of China apply for more patents on hydrogen energy and fuel cell. At the same time, these patents are also technical sources of many domestic enterprises. ASIACHEM believes that, postponements of the school terms of the universities and extensions of the resumptions of enterprises will make R&D progresses postpone, and corresponding R&D progresses cannot be finished within specific time, so that their further market processes will be delayed.

 

4.2 Production and Sales

 

ASIACHEM research indicates that, in 2019, China fuel cell technologies make several achievements, preliminary master fuel cell stacks and key materials, power systems and core parts and entire-vehicle integration etc. core technologies. Laboratory level of some key technologies has reached international advanced level. However, most of fuel cells and materials of China are still under the early stage of marketization, and the engineering, industrialization and overall technology levels are behind.

 

CAAM data shows that, in Jan 2020, China NEV production and sales were expected to complete 40K and 44K, respectively, YOY decrease 55.4% and 54.4%, respectively. Among, passenger-used vehicles production and sales were expected to complete 35K and 39K, respectively, YOY decrease 56.3% and 54.5%, respectively; while commercial-used vehicles production and sales were all expected to complete 5K, YOY decrease 37.4% and 51.7%, respectively.

 

Before, in 2019, China NEV production and sales completed 1.242M and 1.206M, respectively, YOY decrease 2.3% and 4.0%; FCV production and sales completed 2833 and 2737, respectively, YOY increase 85.5% and 79.2%, respectively. It is noteworthy that, in Dec 2019, China FCV production and sales completed 1407 and 1400, respectively, which occupies around 50% of production and sales of the whole year.

 

Public information shows that, currently, enterprises of fuel cell industrial chains will discuss technical schemes and formulate commercial contracts with downstream clients in Q1, and prepare for the orders in Q2, purchase and production will be done in Q3 and deliveries are confirmed in Q4.

 

ASIACHEM believes that, although in general, production and delivery of enterprises of fuel cell industrial chains will not be huge influenced due to NCP, in a short time, products of industrial chain main exist the situations of under-capacity or even out-of-stock. What is more, national subsidies have not yet released, financial data of some mid and small-scale enterprises may be worse, risks of capital chain rupture may also be increase.

 

5. Influences of NCP on Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Developments of Hubei Province

 

ASIACHEM research indicates that, Hubei Province, especially Wuhan City, is one of main development areas of hydrogen energy and fuel cells in China. Enterprises and universities here almost cover the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy and fuel cells.

 

Enterprises   / Universities

Products   / Directions

Wuhan   University of Technology

R&D   of Fuel Cells

Wuhan   Center HydraV

Fuel Cell   Stacks, Fuel Cell Systems and Fuel Cell MEA etc.

WUT   HyPower

Fuel Cell   MEA

Himalaya   Optoelectronics

Fuel Cell   Catalysts, Fuel Cell Engine Systems

Wuhan   Tiger

Fuel Cell   Engine Systems

Wuhan   Troowin

Fuel Cell   Systems

Laohekou   Hyvitech

Fuel Cell   Engine Systems

Dongfeng   Motor

FCV

Grove   Hydrogen Energy Automobile

FCV

Xiongzhong   Hydrogen

HRS   Construction and Operation

Hynertech

Liquid   Organic Hydrogen Storage

Huazhong   University of Science and Technology

SOFC

 

ASIACHEM believes that, influenced by NCP, Hubei Province will invest more capitals to medical and health industry, which make those capitals which may be used in hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry be greatly reduced. Besides, the decisions of ‘shut-down’ of Wuhan etc. governments will make potential investors of the hydrogen energy and fuel cell enterprises change scheduling and bring inconveniences to developments and finances of enterprises.

 

6. Summary

 

Above all, ASIACHEM believes that, break out of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) will affect China hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry to varying degrees, especially Hubei Province, where impacts may be more severe. In terms of hydrogen, in the short term, the hydrogen production and transportation will be impeded, and construction and delivery time of HRS will be delayed; in terms of fuel cells, products of industrial chain may exist situations of under-capacity or out-of-stock in a short time. What is more, national subsidies have not yet released, financial data of some mid and small-scale enterprises may be worse, risks of capital chain rupture may also be increase. However, in general, with gradual easing of epidemic, China hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry will go back to high-speed tracks and industry upward trend will not change.