ASIACHEM: how is the cost advantage of ethylene to MEG from ethane cracking, compared with coal to MEG?

● 2018 Coal to MEG Conference will be held on April 26-27 in Chengdu, Sichuan, China

 

● ASIACHEM will make a speech and analyze the cost comparison of Coal to MEG route with naphtha cracking, ethane cracking and MTO ethylene route

 

● Economy of new process route of coal to MEG - syngas via formaldehyde / glycolic acid will also be analyzed

 

The technology of syngas via oxalate to MEG route is already mature and has become an important part of China's MEG capacity. ASIACHEM’s China Coal-to-MEG Annual Report 2018 show the current and potential raw material routes for MEG are as follows:

 

1. Naphtha cracking to ethylene, ethylene to MEG (mature technology, the main component of China's MEG capacity, the cost is mainly determined by crude oil price).

 

2. Syngas via oxalate route, coal to MEG (mature technology, the main driving force for the growth of MEG capacity in China, will reach 13.5 Mt/a MEG capacity in 2022).

 

3. Outsourced methanol to olefin, ethylene to MEG (MTO to MEG, mature technology, three large operation projects, the cost depends on the raw material price of methanol, in which Jiangsu Sailboat with EO and derivatives as the main products.)

 

4. Coal to olefin, ethylene to MEG (CTO to MEG, mature technology, but due to investment threshold, project approval and owner's products selection and other reasons, there is no plant yet.)

 

5. Ethane cracking to ethylene, ethylene to MEG (mature technology, due to the low price and large supply of ethane from the US, many large ethane cracking projects in China are carrying out preliminary work. MEG is one of the important downstream product of ethane cracking to ethylene.

 

6. Syngas via formaldehyde / glycolic acid route of coal to MEG (demonstration phase technology, compared with other coal to MEG process routes, has greater advantages in reactor scale, energy consumption and water consumption).

ASIACHEM believes that, for syngas via oxalate route coal to MEG, other technical routes --naphtha cracking, MTO, and ethane cracking to MEG routes will be strong competitors. ASIACHEM’s China Ethylene Technology & Economy Annual Report 2018 shows the production cost of ethylene from three technology routes in East China in 2017 as follows.

 

Explanation: in 2017, the average price of Brent crude oil was 54.8 USD/bbl, and methanol in East China was 2778CNY/t, and the price of imported ethane is calculated according to the "American local market price of ethane, liquefaction cost plus shipping cost" (the average price of MB ethane in the US is 3.4 USD/mmbtu in 2017).

ASIACHEM’s China Coal-to-MEG Annual Report 2018 shows China’s MEG production cost as follows, based on the price of raw coal estimated at 360 CNY/t (without VAT) in 2017.

 It can be seen from the above figure, the MEG unit with high load and stable operation is profitable in 2017, whatever material route is used.

 

Based on the Brent oil price of 54.8 USD/bbl in 2017, the cost of naphtha cracking ethylene to MEG is 3808 CNY/t, which is slightly higher than that of oxalate route cost 3652 CNY/t. Considering the MEG freight of 600 CNY/t from the northwest to East China, the MEG profitability of the naphtha cracking route is slightly stronger. However, from the second half of 2017, the strong recovery of crude oil price has greatly enhanced the competitiveness of CTMEG.

 

Due to the higher methanol price in 2017, MTO route is the highest cost of MEG production. However, due to the project is located in Zhejiang, close to the consumption market, it still has good profit margins.

 

In 2017, based on ethane imported from the US, ethane cracking route has the lowest cost and the strongest profitability. With the completion and operation of several light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization projects, the ethylene production project of large ethane cracking will achieve zero breakthrough in China, and is expected to become an important ethylene production route in China. MEG is also an important downstream product for large ethane cracking project.

Satellite Petrochemical subsidiary, Lianyungang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to build 4Mt/a olefin comprehensive utilization project, which is divided into two stages. The main units of the first stage includes: 1.25Mt/a ethylene unit, 720/910kt/a EO/EG, 500 kt/a LLDPE, and 400kt/a HDPE. The second stage includes: 1.25 Mt/a light hydrocarbon cracking unit, 2 sets of 720/910kt/a EO/EG, 500kt/a LDPE, 500kt/a styrene, 260kt/a acrylonitrile units.

 

Nanshan Group plans to build comprehensive utilization project, which includes 2Mt/a ethylene unit, 1.25Mt/a MEG, 400kt/a EVA/LDPE, 350kt/a LLDPE, 350kt/a HDPE, 300kt/a HDPE/LLDPE units.

 

Generally speaking, oxalate route coal to MEG has become an important part of China's MEG capacity, shared China's MEG market with naphtha cracking route, MTO route and imported MEG. But the lower cost of ethane cracking route has great potential in capacity growth. In addition, syngas via formaldehyde / glycolic acid route technology is in the demonstration stage. Compared with other coal to MEG process, it has great advantages in reactor scale, energy consumption and water consumption, and deserves the attention of the whole industry.

 

More free information on the industry analysis of coal to MEG, please contact ASIACHEM.

 

Annual Review of China's coal (syngas) to MEG Industry in 2017

 

Hengli Petrochemical will build 1.8Mt/a MEG unit, Coal to MEG is facing a strong competitor?

 

2018 China’s MEG capacity structure and development trend of CTMEG technology

 

A new technical route will be used in 1Mt/a CTMEG project, based on methanol/H2/ CO as raw materials, without intermediates of DMO

 

Released 2018 China Coal (Syngas) to MEG Project Map, CTMEG Capacity Will Reach 13.5Mt/a in 2022

 

More information on the industry analysis of coal to MEG, please focus on China's Coal to MEG Annual Report 2018, which is to be launched in March 2018 by ASIACHEM.