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ASIACHEM: Battery Yield Rate Will Be Key to Decide Climbing of Tesla Model 3 Capacity

2017-08-08

On the evening of Jul 28, 2017, US time, Tesla Model 3 first 30 vehicles in the world delivered in Fremont Factory, US. Information shows that, Model 3 has 2 versions, which are Standard and Long Range. Among, Model 3 of Standard LIB capacity is 60kWh, while Long Range is 85kWh; Model 3 of Standard in city’s EPA working life mileage is 220 miles (about 354km), while Long Range is 310 miles (about 498km). Only a few days after delivery ceremony, Kurt Kelty, CTO of Tesla Battery (Chief Technology Officer), announced his resignation.

 

Information shows that, different from Tesla Model S and Model X, Tesla Model 3 used a new generation 21700 battery. Tesla emphasized that, this is the battery which energy density is the highest and the cost is the lowest and can be mass production. Influenced by this trend, global LIB tycoons, for example like South Korea Samsung SDI, China EVE Energy, Tianjin Lishen and Smarter Energy etc. did layout of 21700 one after another, set off a trend of type changing in the world.

 

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According to Tesla capacity plan, in Jul 2017, Tesla will only produce 30 Model 3. In Aug, the output will gradually reach 100; in Sep, it will exceed 1500; in Dec, it will reach 20k; in 2018, it will realize 500k/a. However, it is widely believed that, this target is hard to realize. ASIACHEM believes that, yield of 21700 battery of Tesla, which energy density is as high as 300Wh/kg, will be key to decide climbing of Tesla Model 3 capacity.

 

Public information shows that, BYD ternary material monomer battery energy density is 200Wh/kg and plans to reach 300Wh/kg in 2020. BAK Battery ternary material monomer battery energy density is close to 220Wh/kg and it will further increase to 300Wh/kg later on. Currently, whole LIB industry to mass production battery’s energy density’s plan is to realize aim of 300Wh/kg in 2020, generally. Compare with industry level, Tesla realizes this target 3 years ahead, and it is quite difficult.

 

ASIACHEM believes that, Tesla indeed can produce 21700 battery which can meets the performance indexes of Model 3, yet, energy density of this battery is far beyond level of  current period and current industry, which made yield of Tesla 21700 battery in current stage worrying. Yield of 21700 battery of Gigafactory in H2, 2017 will decide whether Tesla Model 3 will realize capacity climbing plan or not, which will be a huge challenge to both Tesla and Panasonic.