ASIACHEM believes that, both power LIB vehicles and FCV have advantages and they will co-exist in market in quite long period. Among, power LIB suits for passenger used vehicles and short-distance bus because of its relatively low energy density; hydrogen fuel cell suits for commercial used vehicles, like long-distance bus and freight vehicles, as its higher driving mileage and relatively fixed routes. From long term, with further decrease of fuel cell system and stack cost and further perfect of hydrogen filling station network, FCV will occupy higher market share.
New energy vehicles mainly include blade electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and fuel cell vehicle (FCV). Recently, China NEV increases rapidly. CAAM data shows that, in 2017, China NEV production and sales volume reached 794k and 777k, respectively, year on year (YOY) increase 53.8% and 53.3%, respectively. In sales volume of NEV, 84% is BEV, while 16% is PHEV.
Hydrogen energy is acknowledged clean energy. In transportation field, hydrogen energy and fuel cell construct power system, which has high energy density, zero pollution and long driving mileage etc. merits. Recently, hydrogen fuel cell and its industry chain attract active layout of many enterprises / governments. Public information shows that, from 2013 to 2017, the world sold 6475 FCV in total.
So, why currently electric vehicles (EV) sales volume is far more than FCV? ASIACHEM does the comparison from 3 aspects as below.
1. Battery PACK / Fuel Cell System Cost
Power LIB mainly has four key materials, which are cathode material, anode material, separator and electrolyte. Power LIB applies to EV by assembling battery PACK through series or parallel connection. For example, ASIACHEM <China LIB Annual Report 2018> information shows that, Tesla Model 3 uses 21700 battery, its cathode material is NCA, while anode material is silicon carbon, and its PACK (includes battery and whole BMS system that includes heat management module) cost is USD 155/Wh. Model 3 has two versions, which are Standard and Long Range, and its battery volume is 50kWh and 74kWh, respectively, and then, its battery system cost is USD 13000 and USD 19240, respectively.
Monocell of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is made up of bipolar plate and membrane electrode assembly (MEA). MEA is mainly made up of gas diffusion layers (GDLs), catalyst layer and proton exchange membrane (PEM). Monocells construct cell stacks by stacking, both sides of stacks need end plates, insulating plates and collector plates etc. to assembly, which play roles of fixation, isolation and current collection. DOE (US Department of Energy) latest data shows that, takes 80kW PEMFC system as an example, in 2017, to produce 1000 sets fuel cells, the fuel cell system (includes fuel cell stacks, high pressure hydrogen storage tank, boost inventor, electromotor and power control unit etc.) cost is USD 179/kW, among, stack cost is USD 118/kW; to produce 10k sets fuel cells, the fuel cell system cost is USD 79/kW, among, stack cost is USD 39/kW.
Currently, fuel cell passenger used vehicles, coaches and freight vehicles developed by mainstream FCV factories use electricity - electricity hybrid power system, uses hydrogen fuel cell matches with Ni-MH battery / power LIB as vehicle power source. Meanwhile, the Ni-MH battery / power LIB plays role in starting ignition and recovering brake energy.
Take Toyota Mirai as an example, public information shows that, in 2015, this vehicle output has reached 700; and increased to 2000 in 2016; in 2020, this number will reach 30k, which is 10 times of the year 2017. ASIACHEM research indicates that, Toyota Mirai fuel cell group maximum power is 114kW, then, in 2017, to produce 1000 Mirai, only fuel cell stacks cost is USD 13452, and system cost is USD 20406.
In summary, battery PACK cost is lower.
2. Battery (Cell) Life
Research indicates that, when volume of power battery is lower than 80% of initial, it cannot be used on NEV. View from current technology, the cycle life of power battery is around 1000-1500 times, which is about 5-8 years’ working life.
ASIACHEM according to power battery cycle life is 1000 times, every cycle battery works 7 hours, then, life of power battery is around 7000 hours.
Life of fuel cell is always one of unsolved problems of fuel cell industry. Life of fuel cell current target is 5000-10000 hours.
Public information shows that, HYMOD-300 Vehicle Type Fuel Cell Stack Module, which is developed by Sunrise Power Co. Ltd., becomes China first independently researched and developed fuel cell product which life exceeds 5000h.
In summary, power battery life is longer.
3. Charging (Filling) Problems
● In terms of charging (filling) time and driving mileage
EV charging mode is mainly divided into fast charging / slow charging. Different EV has different charging time. For example, BYD E6 battery volume is 57kWh, driving mileage is 300km; slow charging needs about 20 hours, while fast charging only needs 2.
Information shows that, hydrogen storage volume of Toyota Mirai is 5kg, driving mileage is 400-480km, hydrogen filling time is 3 minutes.
In summary, fuel cell passenger used vehicles filling time is shorter.
● In terms of electricity / hydrogen cost
Electricity cost: Take Shanghai as an example, in Apr, 2016, Shanghai Government released <Shanghai City Encourages EV Charging / Changing Facilities Development Support Methods>, pointed out charging facilities operating enterprises charged charging service expense execute government guiding price, up limit of charging service expense before Jul 1, 2016 is CNY 1.6/kWh, up limit after Jul 1, 2016 is CNY 1.3/kWh.
Take BYD e6 as an example, without consideration of other factors, its electricity cost is CNY 0.247/km.
Hydrogen cost: ASIACHEM <China Coal to H2 Annual Report 2018> data shows that, in 2017, average price of Qinhuangdao 5500kCal power coal was CNY 586/t (VAT excluded), it is estimated that large scale coal gasification to hydrogen complete cost was about CNY 0.67/m3. However, FCV requirement to hydrogen quality is very high. Besides, hydrogen also faces liquefaction, storage and transportation etc. problems, which all leads actual price of hydrogen is expensive currently. Yutong Bus Dr. LI Feiqiang introduced that, at present, China hydrogen filling station hydrogen minimum price is CNY 40/kg.
Take Mirai as an example, its hydrogen expense is CNY 0.42-0.5/km.
In summary, EV unit kilometer expense is less.
● In terms of numbers of charging piles / gas filling stations
Charging piles: Public data shows that, up to end of 2017, China totally has 450k charging piles. Oct 2015, the State Council released <Guiding Opinion on Accelerate EV Charging Infrastructure Construction>, pointed out that to 2020, China charging infrastructures need to meet charging requirement of 5M EV, which means the number of charging piles should reach 4.8M.
Hydrogen filling stations: ASIACHEM <China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Annual Report 2018> shows that, up to end of 2017, China totally has 11 construction hydrogen filling stations, however, four of them have been demolished currently. In 2016, <China Hydrogen Industry Infrastructure Development Blue Book (2016)>, which is released by China National Institute of Standardization and National Technical Committee on Fuel Cell, showed that, to 2020, China needs to construction 100 hydrogen filling stations.
In summary, EV charging piles network is more perfect.
View from above, FCV is only better than EV in terms of charging (filling) time, which also leads number of EV is far more than FCV.
Feb 2018, MOF, MIIT, MOST and NDRC released <Inform on Adjusting and Perfecting NEV Popularization and Application Financial Subsidy Policy>. This <Inform> starts implementation on Feb 12, 2018, and transition period is from Feb 12, 2018 to Jun 11, 2018. In detail, subsidies of new energy passenger used vehicles, coaches and special used vehicles are decreased with varying degrees. Although FCV subsidy standard remains unchanged, its technology requirement greatly increases.
ASIACHEM believes that, both power LIB vehicles and FCV have advantages and they will co-exist in market in quite long period. Among, power LIB suits for passenger used vehicles and short-distance bus because of its relatively low energy density; hydrogen fuel cell suits for commercial used vehicles, like long-distance bus and freight vehicles, as its higher driving mileage and relatively fixed routes. From long term, with further decrease of fuel cell system and stack cost and further perfect of hydrogen filling station network, FCV will occupy higher market share.
