At the end of 2016, a report published by Forbes showed that, the total GDP of India has exceeded UK, ranking the 5th in the world, after USA, China, Japan and Germany.
In 2016, the GDP growth of India exceeded China, becoming the fastest growing emerging economy in the world. As a rapidly growing economy, with more than 1.3bn population, India has huge demand on petrochemical products. Especially in recent years, the rapid growth of Indian economy, as well as huge investment in agriculture, infrastructure, and sanitary condition, etc., have promoted the rapid growth of Indian petrochemical industry.
Indian Economy Situation & Prospect
Indian economy itself has shown resilience in the face of global downturns. Thanks to the benefit driven from a sharp reduction in crude oil price and the resilient domestic consumption, as well as the Indian economy's domestic economic parameter such as moderate inflation and fiscal and current account deficits, the Indian economy growth remains bloom, and becomes one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With the performance of the $ 2 trillion-economy, Indian economy is being keenly observed by the world.
Indian government launched various ambitious national programs, such as Make in India, Digital India, Skill India, Start-up India, Clean India Mission, and so on, which will not only transform the extent and the quality of rural and urban infrastructure, but also makes India the world's largest infrastructure investment and construction market, providing significant opportunities for investors and promoting the rapid development of India.
Indian government changed the GDP methodology in the late 2014, which propelled Indian economy growth from sub-5% to above 6.5% in FY2014. It helped India overtake China, becoming the fastest growing economy in the world. According to the Advance Estimates released by Central Statistics Office (CSO), the GDP growth at constant market prices has been estimated at 7.6% in 2015-16, which is higher than the growth of 7.2% recorded in the previous year.
Despite a global recession, as well as severe growth pressure faced by almost all emerging economies, several international agencies continue to remain positive on Indian economy growth. Indian GDP growth in 2016-17 predicted by Indian government, IMF, and World Bank will be 7.6%, 7.5%, and 7.8%, respectively. Nevertheless, the risk to the outlook remains, primarily owing to the international market, the pace of the rate hike by US Fed and China’s growth slowdown, which could have a spillover deceleration effect on emerging markets.
Indian Petrochemical Industry Situation & Prospect
As the downstream industry of exploration and oil refining, petrochemical is a very important industry in Indian economy, and it mainly contains two areas of basic petrochemicals and end petrochemicals. The basic petrochemical products mainly include olefins (i.e. ethylene, propylene, etc.) and aromatics (i.e. benzene, toluene, PX, etc.); while end petrochemical products mainly include polymers (i.e. polyethylene, propylene), synthetic fibers (i.e. PET), elastomers, etc.
Currently, India has commissioned main basic petrochemicals capacity of 14.84Mt/a, as well as end petrochemicals capacity of 14.41Mt/a. From FY2010 to FY2015, India petrochemical products import grew annually by a compound rate of 12%, while the export growth rate at the same period was 9%. India has achieved the balance between supply and demand of basic petrochemicals such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, toluene, benzene, PX, MEG, etc., with some products even oversupply; while for PE, PP, PET products, India exports large amount of these products every year, however, it still imports high end products to satisfy domestic demand.
Petrochemical industry is one of the fastest growing industries in India, with an average annual growth of above 10%, 2 times of Indian GDP growth, and the Indian petrochemical scale has reached $40bn. Indian petrochemical industry is expected to keep high growth rate in the future years, reaching the scale of $250bn in 2020. The demand of basic petrochemicals in India is predicted to maintain an annual compound rate of 10%, reaching 22.6Mt in FY2020, and the demand growth will be mainly driven by olefins (ethylene, propylene, etc.); while end petrochemicals is predicted to maintain an annual compound rate of 9.5%, reaching 22.7Mt in FY2020.
As a big agricultural country, India shows huge demand on chemical fertilizers. India has 30 large urea plants, 21 DAP and complex fertilizer units, as well as 2 units to produce ammonia sulfate as by-product. Besides, 105 middle and small units are under operation, to produce calcium superphosphate. Currently, capacities of urea, DAP, and complex fertilizer in India are about 33Mt/a, 8.5Mt/a, and 6Mt/a, respectively, with production of about 24Mt, 3.5Mt, and 9.3Mt. However, India still needs to import large amount of urea, DAP and complex fertilizer every year, especially for DAP, it has a very low self-sufficient rate.
In the future years, with the development of agriculture, India will keep fast growth on chemical fertilizer demand, and it’s predicted that, in 2020, the demand of urea, DAP and complex fertilizer in India will reach about 36Mt, 13Mt, and 13Mt, respectively. Indian chemical fertilizer production capacity will hardly to satisfy its strong demand, therefore, the chemical fertilizer import in India is predicted to maintain high level.
ASIACHEM believes that, the scale of Indian petrochemical industry is small due to reasons such as lack of raw material advantage and low plastic consumption per capita, however, with the fast growth of Indian economy, as well as huge investment in infrastructure and sanitary promoted by a series of ambitious national programs launched by Indian government, Indian petrochemical industry will have a huge development opportunity. In the future years, India will keep fast growth on petrochemical demand, and it will attract more investors to participate in the construction of more petrochemical projects. India is expected to become the new engine of Asian petrochemical market.
The senior team of ASIACHEM made a deep study on Indian petrochemical industry, and combined with authoritative data and research reports released by India and international agencies, to grandly launch <Market & Projects Outlook: India Petrochemical Report 2016>, which will provide authoritative interpretation of Indian petrochemical situation & prospect for companies concerned about Indian petrochemical market, project investors, engineering & technology providers, equipment suppliers. This Report introduces the following content especially:
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian Economy Development
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian Ethylene, Propylene Industries
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian Benzene, Toluene & PX Industries
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian MEG Industries
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian PE, PP Industries
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian PTA Industries
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian PET Industries
Ø Situation & Outlook of Indian Chemical Fertilizer (Urea, DAP, Complex Fertilizer) Industry
Ø Statistics & Introduction of Indian New Petrochemical Projects (Planning & under Implementation)
