Polyolefin (PO), polymers of ethylene, propylene or higher olefins, is the largest output and most widely used polymer materials, and polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are most important ones.
ASIACHEM believes that, in 13th FYP, with the rapid development of coal (methanol) to olefins (CTO/MTO) and propane dehydrogenation (PDH), capacity and production of polyolefin in China will continues to increase, with continuous improvement of self-sufficiency rate and fiercer diversified competition; however, high-end polyolefin products in China face with a shortage of supplies, and heavily dependent on imports. Therefore, high-end development of polyolefin products, to achieve import substitution, will be the key direction of China’s polyolefin industry upgrading.
1. China’s PE Supply & Demand Situation
ASIACHEM’s data shows that, by the end of 2016, China’s PE capacity has reached about 17Mt/a, with newly added capacity of about 1.5Mt/a, all from CTO/MTO projects. In 2016, the apparent consumption and production of PE in China were about 24Mt and 14Mt, respectively, while the net import of PE was as high as 10Mt. The main consumption areas of PE include film, injection molding, blow molding and pipe.
In 2007-2016, the average annual growth rates of PE production and consumption in China exceeded 8%, and the self-sufficiency rate of PE has increased from about 50% to over 60%.
2. China’s PP Supply & Demand Situation
ASIACHEM’s data shows that, by the end of 2016, China’s PP capacity has reached about 22Mt/a, with newly added capacity of about 3.5Mt/a, mainly from MTO and PDH projects. In 2016, the apparent consumption and production of PP in China were about 21Mt and 18Mt, respectively, while the net import of PP was as high as 3Mt. The main consumption areas of PP include woven articles, injection molding and BOPP.
In 2007-2016, the average annual growth rate of PP consumption in China exceeded 8%, while average annual growth rate of PP production exceeded 10%. Due to the faster increase in production than consumption, the self-sufficiency rate of PP basically increased annually.
3. China’s Polyolefin Supply & Demand Outlook
By the end of 2016, the total capacity of polyolefin (PE/PP) in China was about 39Mt/a, with the gap between supply and demand of about 13Mt. During 13th FYP, with the construction of several large-scale refining & chemical integration projects such as CNOOC Huizhou Refining Phase II, Gulei Petrochemical, SinoChem Quanzhou, Zhejiang Petrochemical (Phase I), Hengli Petrochemical, etc., as well as the rapid development of CTO/MTO, ethane cracking to ethylene, PDH, etc., it’s predicted that the total capacity of polyolefin in China in 2020 will be 46Mt/a, including 16.5Mt/a coal (methanol) based polyolefin.
During 13th FYP, due to the development of urbanization, agricultural modernization, and the wider application in fields such as rail transit, automotive lightweight, medical apparatuses, electronic appliances, the polyolefin consumption in China will continue to increase. It’s predicted that polyolefin consumption will be about 50Mt, with the gap between supply and demand of about 4Mt.
4. High-end Development Becomes Key Direction of Polyolefin Industry
Currently, the structural contradictions are conspicuous in China’s polyolefin industry. On one hand, polyolefin products in China are mainly dominated by middle and low general commodities, with fiercely competitive market; on the other hand, the high-end polyolefin products in China are in desperately short supply, with current self-sufficiency rate less than 30%.
ASIACHEM believes that, in 13th FYP, the upgrading of China’s polyolefin industry shall pay attention to technological innovation in the development of high-end, differentiated and diversified products. It’s necessary to strengthen development and market promotion of high-end polyolefin products such as metallocene polyolefin elastomer, bimodal polyolefin, UHMWPE, etc., and to increase the production ratio of high-end & special grades, such as PP pipe, capacitor film, PE fuel tank, gas pipe, bumper, which can thereby improve the competitiveness of China’s polyolefin industry.
The 2nd High-End Polyolefin Technologies & Market Conference 2017 will be organized by ASIACHEM on Jun 29-30 2017 in Suzhou. The upcoming conference will discuss downstream application & market trend of global & China’s high-end polyolefin; future planning of feedstock diversification high-end polyolefin projects; high performance specialized & functionalized polyolefin; modified plastics & plastic alloys; development & application of metallocene polyolefin; progress of high carbonα-olefin comonomers production process; R&D and industrialization of polyolefin elastomer (POE); high-end polyolefin catalysts & processes; market potential of new downstream applications, etc. Besides, an industrial visiting will be arranged.
Topics
1. Downstream application & market trend of global & China’s high-end polyolefin
2. Future planning of feedstock diversification high-end polyolefin projects: CTO/PDH/ refining-chemical integration
3. High performance specialized & functionalized polyolefin
4. Modified plastics & plastic alloys
5. Development & application of metallocene polyolefin
6. Progress of high carbonα-olefin comonomers production process
7. R&D and industrialization of polyolefin elastomer (POE)
8. Bimodal polyolefin process & application
9. Development & application of UHMWPE
10. High-end polyolefin catalysts & processes
11. Industrial visiting
